I was 221 lbs so down 199 from my starting weight of 420.  I wanted to lose 210 lbs to be half the person I used to be, but after four three months of working downtown I had stabilized here and I thought this would be a good weight to make my new home.  Maybe surgery would remove 10 lbs of whatever and I would reach my target but this seemed unlikely.  So, with heavy heart, and a soon to be empty wallet, I called to schedule two procedures to get rid of an excess of me.  Time to shrink.

I called to schedule an initial pre-op visit:

*chatter about scheduling*

Receptionist: Everything will be fine, the doctor is quite skilled.
Me: I’m not worried about the doctor, I’m worried about the anesthesiologist.
Receptionist: Don’t say that.  Everything will be fine.
Me: What?  He’s five times more likely to kill me than the surgeon.
Receptionist: STOP SAYING THAT.
Me: Hey, I’m an actuary, I know these things.
Receptionist: Well, I’m sure the anesthesiologist is good too.  Have a nice day, actuary.

I visited one of the troops for which I commission this evening and was asked to sit on a board of review for a Scout going for Tenderfoot.  I started with my standard “which superpower would you rather have: unlimited desserts for personal consumption or the ability to get a good seat.” as with most people under 15, he chose the dessert option.  My follow-up question was “do you have any examples of using something you learned in Scouting in the rest of your life?”

Kid:  Yes, I’ve used first aid a lot.
Me: Can you be more specific?
Kid:  It’s good to know how to apply a big bandage one-handed like after you cut yourself.
Me: When did this happen?
Kid:  A few times at summer camp.
Me: How about using a skill you learned in Scouting outside of Scouting?
Kid:  *silence* Can’t think of anything.

The BSA publishes statistics on how many Scouts use their skills to save a life, I always figured a good number of those were due to Scouting events.  Really seems like they’re stacking the deck.

As an hourly employee, I’m not a terrible fan of snow days.  Like most closings, it simply a way of saying “try and get 40 hours in now, bitch” while the full-time staff blows a holiday to make-up the difference.  Late openings are a different beast entirely as the calculus of presence changes.  If one shows up and one’s supervisor doesn’t, the work time is entirely unverifiable.  Alternatively, some may expect their wards to arrive on time in spite of the delay and yet others use it as an excuse to try to force time out of people later.  So, what was the outcome of the snow day roulette?  By some stroke of amazing luck all three of four of the full time office members were sick today.  What are the odds of this happening?  I wanted to find out:

The average American gets 1.7 colds a year lasting on average 3 days generate 2.8 sickdays a year.  Let’s assume most colds come in a 4-month window and that colds that are start at the same time are independent of one another.  What’s that come out to?  About 0.00041%.  Sure glad I trudged through the snow to get in my time and to see that statistical miracle.

It’s been a bit since I’ve updated the Swine Flu death comparison.  Swine Flu is at 436 deaths in the US (Source: CDC).  Here are some things still more likely to kill you:

  • Birth Asphyxia
  • Discharge from very large firearm (at least .5o caliber) or artillery piece
  • Drowning in a swimming pool
  • Falling out of bed (it’s listed as “falls involving a bed”, I assume this doesn’t mean the bed pushed you)
  • My favorite “Electromechanical Shearing” which I’m pretty sure is death by wheat thresher/rice picker/paper pulping machine

Sleep well.

(Demographics and Statistics Nerds Only)

As a protoactuary, I often talk with people on the train or where ever about things ranging form economics to demographics to environmental issues.  Matt Sundheim and I most notably have disagreed over the shape of the world in 2050.  I’ve always been called optimistic (I consider it realistic) concerning epic drops in violence, poverty, starvation and disease.  I try to cite data where possible and the Economist has done a survey of world health as experienced by humans summing up progress since the 1990s.

If humanity can come up with a way to curb environmental damage and reduce fall-out or possible manage failing states, the world is going to truly kick ass in 2050.  110-year life expectancy here we come.

(Demographics and Statistics Nerds Only)

As a protoactuary, I often talk with people on the train or where ever about things ranging form economics to demographics to environmental issues.  Matt Sundheim and I most notably have disagreed over the shape of the world in 2050.  I’ve always been called optimistic (I consider it realistic) concerning epic drops in violence, poverty, starvation and disease.  I try to cite data where possible and the Economist has done a survey of world health as experienced by humans summing up progress since the 1990s.

If humanity can come up with a way to curb environmental damage and reduce fall-out or possible manage failing states, the world is going to truly kick ass in 2050.  110-year life expectancy here we come.

My statistics textbook prides itself on using real world examples in its problems.  I could tell for the current lesson on large sample sizes when a question began “During a football game, a gust of wind caused 1/2 the number of spectator’s to lose their hats.  Assuming the lights didn’t work, find a function that for a number n, that 1/4 of them would get hats back assuming the hats are distributed both randomly and independently.”